Markets Report: the end of a fantastic year
All I want for Christmas..... is a Santa Claus Rally
2025 is almost over. After a huge rally from April-October, the S&P 500 has basically swung sideways since then. This comes as no surprise: markets do not rally upwards without taking a break.
The year-end “Santa Claus Rally” period begins Wednesday December 24. It covers the last 5 trading days of this year + the first 2 of January. This was historically bullish from a seasonality perspective:
It’s important to remember that seasonality is the LEAST useful of indicators: markets do not operate on a pre-determined clock and can deviate significantly from seasonality. For example, the S&P 500 fell during the last 2 “Santa Claus Rallies”.
2025 is basically in the books at this point, so the focus is on 2026. Can we see more gains in 2026?